Supply and demand are the key drivers of the real estate market.
Supply
- New supply: New Listings (i.e. the number of homes recently listed for sale)
- Total supply: Inventory (i.e. the total number of homes listed for sale)
Demand
- Sales (i.e. the number of homes recently sold)
Supply & Demand
- Months of Supply (i.e. the number of months it would take to sell all current inventory at the current rate of sale)
These metrics are the best indicators of the health of the real estate market. Let’s look at what they show us.
Calgary and Edmonton continue to see less supply and more demand in the aftermath of COVID-19 wave 1.
In Calgary, the total number of homes for sale is down 17% compared to the average of the previous 2 years. This is up slightly from last month (-18%) due to 2% more new listings coming to market than last October.
Meanwhile sales (i.e. demand) continue to be strong, with sales in October up 28% compared to previous years.
This caused months of supply to drop to 3.3 months, which is its lowest level in Calgary since mid-2017. Fewer months of supply generally makes conditions more favourable for sellers, while higher months of supply is more favourable for buyers.
The overall picture is very similar in Edmonton, where total supply is down 17% while sales continue to be strong, up 30% from previous years.
New listings in Edmonton were up 10% in October, which helped total supply to move to -17% from -19% the month before.
Months of supply in Edmonton is currently at 4.2 months, up slightly from last month.
What does this mean for sellers?
Right now supply is low relative to previous years, and demand is high which means it could be a good time to sell your home . In general, there is less competition and hence sellers who price their home well have a good chance of selling quickly. However, your specific property value will be determined by market forces both within your community and against similar active listings
To find out what supply and demand look like for your community, click here.
What does this mean for buyers?
In Calgary and Edmonton, there are currently fewer options than in previous years. This means active buyers need to move faster to beat other buyers to the available listings. One way you can move faster is by booking viewings directly through Bōde, so you don’t have to wait for a realtor to schedule your viewings.
Market conditions vary substantially by property type, community and price range
Above, we’ve looked at the overall markets for Calgary and Edmonton, but different segments are performing very differently. Let’s look at a few examples.
Supply of detached homes in Calgary is down 27% compared to previous years while sales are up 36%.
This means months of supply is down to 2.4 months which is the lowest it’s been for years.
On the other end of the spectrum, supply of apartments in Calgary are up 9% compared to previous years while sales are only up 2%.
New listings of apartments were up 22% in October, which helped overall supply go higher. There is now 7 months supply of apartments in Calgary, which gives buyers a lot of options and makes it more difficult for sellers.
In general, you’re in a much better position if you’re selling a detached home right now compared to an apartment, due to less supply and greater demand.
However, even this analysis is still too high level to understand what’s happening in your specific local property market. There are some communities of the city and some price bands where detached homes are performing better/worse, and the same goes for apartments.
It’s critical to understand the dynamics in your local property market
To understand your local property market you need to look at your local data. Head over to Bōde’s Market Data dashboard, the only place where you can see all the data yourself, including being able to filter on community, property type, and price range to see exactly what’s happening where you live.
