Written by Alan Kelly, Bōde’s Chief Economist
The real estate market in Calgary continues to be a red hot seller’s market going into February – which means it’s a great time for those thinking of selling, especially if you are considering downsizing or moving to a different market where prices are lower.
When you are thinking of buying or selling your home in Calgary, it is important to understand what is happening in the housing market. Obviously, there are many important factors to consider (what kind of home you have, what community etc.), so it’s important to look specifically at what the market is doing in your local area.
Bōde makes buying and selling your home a streamlined process offering significant time and cost savings along the way.
We are also here to make sure you have the information you need to make the decisions that are right for YOU!
What’s happening in the Calgary real estate market as of February 2022?
Let’s start with a Macroeconomics view
To understand what’s happening in the real estate market you have to look at supply and demand.
The best proxies for supply and demand are:
Supply
- New supply: New Listings (i.e. the number of homes recently listed for sale)
- Total supply: Inventory (i.e. the total number of homes listed for sale)
Demand
- Sales (i.e. the number of homes recently sold)
Supply & Demand
- Months of Supply (i.e. the number of months it would take to sell all current inventory at the current rate of sale)
These metrics are the best indicators of the health of the real estate market. Let’s look at what they show us.
Calgary continues to see demand outpace new supply in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak
New listings in January were up 3% while sales were up 110% vs. the average of the previous 4 years. Sales continue the strong trend they’ve been on since July 2020. We expect sales to continue to stay substantially higher than usual for the coming months.
The total number of homes for sale is down 47% compared to the average of the previous 4 years. Inventory levels continue to stay very low compared to historical norms.
The combination of low supply and high demand has kept ‘months of supply’ incredibly low at just 1.3 months which is down 76% vs the previous 4 years. This is one of the lowest levels ever seen for Calgary.
Less inventory & fewer months of supply makes conditions more favourable for sellers, while more inventory and higher months of supply is more favourable for buyers.
Overall, Calgary home prices had been increasing quickly in the first half of 2021, but stayed flat in the second half. The most recent data shows prices starting to increase again. Prices are currently at similar levels to 2014.
What does this mean for sellers?
Right now supply is still very low compared to previous years, and demand is very high which means it is a great time to sell your home. Sellers who price their home well will be able to sell quickly.
However, your specific property value will be determined by market forces both within your community and against similar active listings. To find out what supply and demand look like for your specific community, click here.
What does this mean for buyers?
There are currently far fewer homes for sale than there have been in previous years. This means active buyers need to move fast to beat other buyers to available listings.
One way you can move faster is by booking viewings directly through Bōde, so you don’t have to wait for a realtor to schedule your viewings or draft your offer – do it yourself on Bōde.
Market conditions vary substantially by property type, community and price range
Above, we’ve looked at the overall markets for Calgary, but different segments are performing very differently. Let’s look at a few examples.
In January, sales of detached homes were up 98% vs the previous 3 years.
As a result, the overall supply of detached homes is down 61% compared to previous years.
This has led months of supply to be down 81% to just 0.8 months, which means it continues to be one of the best times in years to be selling a detached home, and one of the toughest times to be buying as there’s significantly less inventory than normal to choose from.
These dynamics led prices upwards quickly in 2021, putting prices at their previous record levels from 2014. However prices have levelled off in recent months.
On the other end of the spectrum, there is currently 3 months of supply of apartments in Calgary – making it a more balanced market.
The apartment market improved significantly in 2021 relative to a very difficult 2020. Sales were incredibly strong for January 2022 (up 137% vs the average of the last 4 years).
After 12 strong months of sales, the overall inventory (supply) of apartments has finally fallen below historical norms. There are now 17% fewer apartments for sale than typical for this time of year.
For much of 2021, there was still a lot of supply of apartments, however, buyers are starting to have fewer options now, which is shifting the balance more towards sellers favour.
Apartment prices were increasing in the first half of 2021 after a steady downward trend since early 2015. However, apartment prices have been flat in recent months.
Attached homes (i.e. semi-detached or row homes) saw 2% more listings in January vs previous years. Sales were incredibly strong at +122% compared to the last 4 years.
Total inventory has been heading lower in recent months (-47% vs previous 4 years). Months of supply has fallen even lower to 1.3 months.
Prices for attached homes have been improving since July 2020 and are back to the price levels of 2018. Prices have continued to improve in recent months.
In general, you’re in a much better position if you’re selling a detached or attached home right now compared to an apartment, due to less supply and greater demand.
However, what really matters is what’s happening in your specific local property market. There are some communities and price bands where detached homes are performing better/worse, and the same goes for apartments.
It’s critical to understand the dynamics in your local property market
To understand your local property market you need to look at your local data. Head over to Bōde’s new and improved Market Data dashboard, the only place where you can see all the data yourself, including being able to filter on community, property type, and price range to see exactly what’s happening where you live.
You can also see the sold price of any home that has sold in the last 11 years using Bode’s Sold Data page.
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