Written by Alan Kelly, Bōde’s Chief Economist
In August, Calgary real estate still saw significantly higher home sales compared to the average of the previous 4 years – especially in the apartment market. Although there has been a slow down compared to earlier in the year, it continues to be a great time for those thinking of selling. Inventory remains low, meaning less competition for sellers. Data also shows prices are still much higher compared to this time last year.
When you are thinking of buying or selling your home in Calgary, it is important to understand what is happening in the housing market. Obviously, there are many important factors to consider (what kind of home you have, what community etc.), so it’s important to look specifically at what the market is doing in your local area.
Bōde makes buying and selling your home a streamlined process offering significant time and cost savings along the way. We are also here to make sure you have the information you need to make the decisions that are right for YOU!
What’s happening in the Calgary real estate market as of September 2022?
Let’s start with a Macroeconomics view
To understand what’s happening in the real estate market you have to look at supply and demand.
The best proxies for supply and demand are:
- New supply: New Listings (i.e. the number of homes recently listed for sale)
- Total supply: Inventory (i.e. the total number of homes listed for sale)
- Sales (i.e. the number of homes recently sold)
Supply & Demand
- Months of Supply (i.e. the number of months it would take to sell all current inventory at the current rate of sale)
These metrics are the best indicators of the health of the real estate market. Let’s look at what they show us.
Calgary continues to see demand outpace new supply in the aftermath of COVID-19
New listings in August were down 3% while sales were up 26% vs. the average of the previous 4 years. Sales continue the strong trend they’ve been on since August 2020, however they are slowing in recent months.
The total number of homes for sale is down 32% compared to the average of the previous 4 years. Inventory levels continue to stay low compared to historical norms.
The combination of low supply and high demand has kept ‘months of supply’ low at just over 2 months which is down 47% vs the previous 4 years. This continues to be a low level for Calgary, the steady climb from previous months has reversed.
Low inventory & fewer months of supply makes conditions more favourable for sellers, while more inventory and higher months of supply is more favourable for buyers.
Overall, Calgary home prices are down 1.5% over last month and up 11.0% over August last year.
What does this mean for sellers?
Right now supply is still very low compared to previous years, and demand is relatively high which means it is a good time to sell your home. Sellers who price their home well will be able to sell quickly. Prices are dropping from previous months, this needs to be reflected in the seller’s list price.
However, your specific property value will be determined by market forces both within your community and against similar active listings. To find out what supply and demand look like for your specific community, click here.
What does this mean for buyers?
There are currently far fewer homes for sale than there have been in previous years. This means active buyers need to move fast to beat other buyers to available listings.
One way you can move faster is by booking viewings directly through Bōde, so you don’t have to wait for a realtor to schedule your viewings or draft your offer – do it yourself on Bōde.
Market conditions vary substantially by property type, community and price range
Above, we’ve looked at the overall Calgary market, but different segments are performing very differently. Let’s look at a few examples.
In August, sales of detached homes were up 3% vs the previous 4 years, while new listings were down 8%.
As a result, the overall supply of detached homes is down 33% compared to previous years.
This has led months of supply to be down 37%, which means it continues to be a relatively good time to be selling a detached home, and one of the toughest times to be buying, as there’s significantly less inventory than normal to choose from.
These dynamics led prices upwards quickly in 2022, putting prices above their previous record levels from 2014. However detached home prices are down 1.6% over last month and up 13.3% over August last year.
The apartment market improved significantly in 2021 & 2022 relative to a very difficult 2020. Sales were incredibly strong for August 2022 (up 95% vs the average of the last 4 years).
There are currently 18% fewer apartments for sale than typical for this time of year a significant drop over last month.
Apartment prices were increasing in the first half of 2021 after a steady downward trend since early 2015. Despite strong demand and low supply, apartment prices are down 0.4% over last month while being up 10.2% over August last year.
Attached homes (i.e. semi-detached or row homes) saw 10% fewer listings in August vs previous years. Sales were very strong at +40% compared to the last 4 years.
Total inventory has been incredibly low in recent months. It is currently 42% lower than the average of the previous 4 years.
Prices for attached homes have generally been improving since August 2020. However prices are now declining. They are down 0.9% over last month while still up 12.1% over August last year.
What really matters is what’s happening in your specific local property market. There are some communities and price bands and property types where homes are performing better/worse than market average.
It’s critical to understand the dynamics in your local property market
To understand your local property market you need to look at your local data. Head over to Bōde’s new and improved Market Data dashboard, the only place where you can see all the data yourself, including being able to filter on community, property type, and price range to see exactly what’s happening where you live.
You can also see the sold price of any home that has sold in the last 11 years using Bode’s Sold Data page.
If you’re thinking about selling, take a look at how Bōde helps sellers sell for 1.3% higher prices while paying 50% less commission.
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