Vancouver sales drop significantly below historical levels.
Vancouver home sales are down 30% in February vs average of last 5 Februarys
It is a new year and a new story when it comes to Vancouver’s real estate market. Home buyers continue to purchase in Vancovuer – due to the strong economy as well as an increase in migration. Many sellers seem to be sitting back to see what is happening to interest rates, however, the homes on the market are moving.
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Obviously, there are many important factors to consider (what kind of home you have, what community etc.), so it’s important to look specifically at what the housing market is doing in your neighbourhood. It is dead-easy to look at our data with a personal lens.
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So what's happening in the Vancouver real estate market as of February 2023?
Let’s start with a Macroeconomics view
To understand what’s happening in the real estate market you have to look at supply and demand.
The best proxies for supply and demand are:
New supply: New Listings (i.e. the number of homes recently listed for sale)
Total supply: Inventory (i.e. the total number of homes listed for sale)
Sales (i.e. the number of homes recently sold)
Supply & Demand
Months of Supply (i.e. the number of months it would take to sell all current inventory at the current rate of sale)
These metrics are the best indicators of the health of the real estate market. Let’s look at what they show us.
Vancouver sales continue to drop significantly below historical levels.
New listings in February were down 23% while sales were down 30% vs. the average of the previous 5 years.
The total number of homes for sale (inventory) is down 10% vs the average of the last 5 years.
‘Months of supply’ has increased quickly in recent months but dropped considerably in the last month. There is currently under 5 months of supply which is +11% vs the previous 5 years.
Less inventory & fewer months of supply makes conditions more favourable for sellers, while more inventory and higher months of supply is more favourable for buyers.
The sudden slow down in sales and hence increase in months of supply mean it’s now a flipped to being a buyers market (after a long period of being a strong sellers market).
Vancouver prices had been increasing quickly since the start of 2021, ending a relatively flat period between mid 2018 and the end of 2020. However prices more recently have been steadily declining. They are up 1.1% over last month, while being down 9.3% over last year.
What does this mean for sellers?
Right now supply is slightly low relative to previous years while demand is slightly below average, which means it is a more balanced market for people thinking of selling their home. Sellers who price their home well will still be able to sell in this market. However, your specific property value will be determined by market forces both within your community and against similar active listings. To find out what supply and demand look like for your specific community, click here.
What does this mean for buyers?
There are currently slightly fewer homes for sale than there have been in previous years. This means active buyers need to move fast to beat other buyers to available listings.
Market conditions vary substantially by property type, community and price range
Vancouver's Detached Homes
Above, we’ve looked at the overall market for Vancouver, but different segments are performing very differently. Let’s look at a few examples.
Sales for detached homes were down 36% in February vs. previous years, while new listings were down 33%
The overall number of detached homes for sale is down 23% vs the average of the last 5 years.
Detached prices had been increasing quickly for much of the past 2.5 years, but have declined in recent months. Prices are up 0.7% from last month, while being down 12% vs. this time last year
New listings of apartments were down 18% in February compared the average of the previous 5 years, while sales were down 30%.
The overall number of apartments for sale is up 5% vs the average of the last 5 years.
Apartment prices have been steadily declining for most of the last year. However prices are up 1.6% from last month, while being down 3% vs. this time last year
Vancouver's Attached Homes
New listings of attached homes were down 16% while sales were down 23% in February (compared to previous years).
The overall number of attached homes for sale is down 7% vs the average of the last 5 years.
Prices for attached homes increased quickly in 2021 and early 2022 but have recently declined quickly. Prices are up 1.8% from last month, while being down 3% vs. this time last year
What really matters is what’s happening in your specific local property market. There are some communities and price bands and property types where homes are performing better/worse than market average.
It’s critical to understand the dynamics in your local property market
To understand your local property market you need to look at your local data. Head over to Bōde’s new and improved Market Data dashboard, the only place where you can see all the data yourself, including being able to filter on community, property type, and price range to see exactly what’s happening where you live.
You can also see the sold price of any home that has sold in the last 12 years using Bode’s Sold Data page.
If you’re thinking about selling, take a look at how Bōde helps sellers sell for 1.3% higher prices while paying 50% less commission.
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Here are a just few of the many successful sellers
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