Written by Alan Kelly, Bōde’s Chief Economist
To understand what’s happening in Vancouver’s real estate market you have to look at supply and demand.
The best proxies for supply and demand are:
Supply
- New supply: New Listings (i.e. the number of homes recently listed for sale)
- Total supply: Inventory (i.e. the total number of homes listed for sale)
Demand
- Sales (i.e. the number of homes recently sold)
Supply & Demand
- Months of Supply (i.e. the number of months it would take to sell all current inventory at the current rate of sale)
These metrics are the best indicators of the health of the real estate market. Let’s look at what they show us.
Vancouver continues to see demand outpace new supply in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak.
New listings in October were down 16% while sales were up 23% vs. the previous 3 years. Sales have been on a strong trend since July 2020 but they have started to come back down closer to normal levels in the past 3 months – while still being relatively high.
Overall, Vancouver prices have been increasing quickly in 2021, ending a relatively flat period between mid 2018 and the end of 2020. In recent months they have started to level off.
What does this mean for sellers?
Right now supply is low relative to previous years, and demand is high which means it is a good time to sell your home. Sellers who price their home well will be able to sell quickly. However, your specific property value will be determined by market forces both within your community and against similar active listings. To find out what supply and demand look like for your specific community, click here.
What does this mean for buyers?
There are currently fewer homes for sale than there have been in previous years. This means active buyers need to move fast to beat other buyers to available listings. One way you can move faster is by booking viewings directly through Bōde, so you don’t have to wait for a realtor to schedule your viewings or write your offer.
Market conditions vary substantially by property type, community and price range
Above, we’ve looked at the overall market for Vancouver, but different segments are performing very differently. Let’s look at a few examples.
Sales for detached homes were up 12% in October vs. previous years, while new listings were down 24%.
Detached homes have generally been the best performing property type since the start of the COVID pandemic as buyers look for more space.
Detached prices have been increasing quickly for much of 2021, setting new record highs each month, however they have increased more slowly in recent months.
Apartments:
New listings of apartments were down 9% in October compared the average of the previous 3 years, while sales were up 37%.
Apartment prices have been increasing quickly in 2021, but the last 3 months have seen a slow down and slight decline in prices.
New listings of attached homes were down 23% while sales were up 9% in October (compared to previous years).
Prices for attached homes have been increasing quickly in 2021 setting new record highs each month. However the speed of increase has slowed in recent months.
In general, you’re in a better position if you’re selling a home right now relative to buying, due to less supply and greater demand.
However, what really matters is what’s happening in your specific local property market. There are some communities and price bands where homes are performing better/worse.
It’s critical to understand the dynamics in your local property market
To understand your local property market you need to look at your local data. Head over to Bōde’s new and improved Market Data dashboard, the only place where you can see all the data yourself, including being able to filter on community, property type, and price range to see exactly what’s happening where you live.
You can also see the sold price of any home that has sold in the last 2 years using Bode’s Sold Datapage.
